EIA expects the Henry Hub price to decrease about 2 percent to just under $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026 before rising sharply in 2027 to just under $4.60/MMBtu, according to its January short-term energy outlook.
The Henry Hub price is expected to decrease as annual supply growth keeps pace with demand growth over the year.
“However, in 2027, we forecast demand growth will rise faster than supply growth, driven mainly by more feed gas demand from US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage,” EIA said.
EIA forecasts annual average spot prices will decrease by 2 percent in 2026 and then increase by 33 percent in 2027.
ccording to EIA, forecast natural gas supply growth outpaces demand growth by 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026 but then falls behind by 1.6 Bcf/d in 2027, putting upward pressure on natural gas prices.
“We expect demand in 2026, which includes exports, will increase by less than 1 percent (+0.6 Bcf/d) while supply, which includes imports, will increase by nearly 1 percent (+1.1 Bcf/d). We expect this difference to reverse in 2027 as demand growth (+2.5 Bcf/d) exceeds supply growth (+0.9 Bcf/d),” it said.
LNG exports drive demand
According to EIA, LNG exports increased by 26 percent in 2025.
EIA previously projected that the US would export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025, 25 percent more than in 2024.
LNG exports grow by a forecast 9 percent (1.3 Bcf/d) in 2026 and 11 percent (1.7 Bcf/d) in 2027, EIA said.
The increase is the result of the ramp-up of three new LNG export facilities: Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Golden Pass LNG.
Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 will continue ramping up to full operations in EIA’s forecast period, and it expects Golden Pass LNG to begin operations by the middle of 2026.
