Shell expects Q1 LNG trading results to be in line compared to previous quarter

LNG giant Shell expects trading and optimization results for its integrated gas business in the first quarter of this year to be in line compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Shell announced this in its first-quarter update note on Monday.

“Trading and optimization results are expected to be in line with Q4’24, despite a higher (non-cash) impact from expiring hedge contracts compared to the previous quarter,” the UK-based firm said.

Shell’s integrated gas segment reported adjusted earnings of about $2.16 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This compares to $3.97 billion in the same period in 2023 and $2.87 billion in the prior quarter.

Overall, Shell’s adjusted earnings reached $3.66 billion in the fourth quarter, down compared to $7.3 billion in the comparable quarter last year.

Adjusted earnings dropped 39 percent compared to $6.03 billion in the prior quarter.

Lower liquefaction volumes

Shell also said in the quarterly update that it expects liquefaction volumes to reach about 6.4 – 6.8 million tonnes in the third quarter.

According to Shell, this “reflects weather impact (cyclones) and unplanned maintenance in Australia.”

The company previously expected liquefaction volumes to reach 6.6 – 7.2 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025.

Shell’s liquefaction volumes of 7.06 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2024 were flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 but were down 6 percent compared to 7.50 million tonnes in the prior quarter.

Gas production

Shell expects integrated gas production to reach 919–950 kboe/d in the first quarter, while upstream production is expected to be at 1,790-1,890 kboe/d.

The new gas production outlook reflects impacts of “unplanned maintenance, including in Australia.”

Shell previously expected gas production to be between 930 – 990 kboe/d and upstream production to be between 1,750 – 1,950 kboe/d.

The company also said in the update that “the Q1’25 net debt movement will reflect a ~$1.5 billion increase related to loan facilities provided at completion of the sale of SPDC in Nigeria as well as lease additions associated with the Pavilion acquisition.”

Shell’s results are scheduled to be published on May 2, 2025.

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