Michel took over as GTT CEO in December last year.
Before that, Philippe Berterottiere, chairman of the board of directors, served as interim CEO following Jean-Baptiste Choimet’s resignation in February last year.
Berterottiere confirmed in February last year that GTT still expects more than 450 orders for large LNG carriers over the next ten years.
He also said in November last year that the market requires about 150 newbuild LNG carriers to transport volumes of LNG from the projects sanctioned in 2025.
US LNG FIDs
Michel also confirmed this during GTT’s 2025 earnings call on Friday.
He noted that 2025 was a record year for final investment decisions for new LNG trains, with a record level of 84 million tons per annum, of which 62 were in the US alone.
“We estimate that these FIDs announced last year will translate into additional needs for new LNGC vessels, representing roughly 150 additional vessels,” he said.
Michel noted that there is also a “favourable” FID outlook after the 2025 record.
According to GTT’s presentation, the company expects FIDs on seven projects during this and next year.
These include QatarEnergy’s North Field West, Tecas LNG, Commonwealth LNG, the first phase of Sabine Pass Stage 5, the first Delfin FLNG unit, CP2 Phase 2, and the second phase of Argentina LNG.
Other potential FIDs include five projects.
“We have counted more than 50 million tonnes per annum of pre-FID SPAs, so SPAs that have not been included in signed firm FIDs yet. This bodes very well, in fact, for the activity level of future FIDs,” Michel said.
Aging LNG fleet
Michel noted that another driver for new LNG carrier demand is the fleet replacement of steam vessels.
“The LNG carrier fleet is aging, and in the next 10 years, more than 300 vessels will be more than 20 years old, of which a bit more than 200 will be more than 25 years old,” he said.
He said that less than half of the fleet today is running on the latest types of engines, which are “far more efficient than the older ones.”
“We are convinced that simple economics will put pressure on the fleet to scrap more and more vessels, and to replace with them with new ones,” he said.
“And we are already seeing this happening because, as you know, and this is what you see on the left chart, we have seen last year a record number of scraps and conversions. The total number of ships being scrapped or converted has reached an all-time high of 19 ships,” he said.
Out of these, 15 steam vessels were scrapped.
“Significantly upward versus 450”
“All of these factors combined will lead us to review upward our long-term estimates for LNGCs over the next 10 years, which we now put here. Hence, the plus, plus after the 450,” Michel said.
“I’ve not met all customers, so it’s a little bit early for me to give you a very specific figures on that. But let’s say all the indications we have, market indications we have for the moment, point to a solid upward revision of this figure,” he said.
“So we see a very solid level of activity in our sectors for fundamental reasons. The rest of the activity is good. We see it as solid, and we have not made any revisions,” he said.
Over the 2026-2035 period, GTT expects orders for 25-40 ethane carriers, up to 10 FSRUs and up to 10 FLNGs, and 25-30 onshore storage tanks and GBSs.
Asked to provide more details about the new estimate for LNG carriers during the call, Michel said that this number is “the cumulative of three things.”
“It’s the amount of ships that still need to be delivered for existing projects that have reached FIDs. It’s the amount of ships that will be needed for new FIDs, and this is where we have the highest uncertainty, and it’s the amount of ships in the coming decades that will need to be scrapped,” he said.
“We see a solid 200-225 ships being scrapped, and that will need to be replaced for the various reasons that I explained before. We had communicated before on the fact that the number would be slightly up versus 450. I see it significantly upward versus 450,” Michel said.
