TotalEnergies: Q1 LNG trading benefited from market volatility

French energy giant TotalEnergies, one of the world’s largest LNG players, said on Thursday that it expects its integrated LNG results to be "significantly higher" in the first quarter compared to the prior quarter, underpinned by "strong" trading activities benefiting from market volatility.

TotalEnergies announced this in its trading statement, ahead of the release of its first-quarter results on April 29.

The company said it expects a 10 percent LNG production increase in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

Hydrocarbon production for LNG reached 543 kboe/d in the fourth quarter, up from 494 kboe/d in the same period in 2024, and up 13 percent compared to 482 kboe/d in the previous quarter.

Average equity price

TotalEnergies said its average price for equity LNG sales in the first quarter was $8.48/MMBtu over the three-month period, down $1.52/MMBtu from $10/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025.

Additionally, the average price was the same compared to the fourth quarter last year, and it decreased from $8.91/MMBtu in the third quarter and $9.10/MMBtu in the second quarter.

These prices do not include LNG trading activity.

In its February results report, TotalEnergies said it anticipates an average LNG selling price close to $8.5/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, given recent oil and gas price trends and the lag effect on pricing formulas.

Last month, the company announced that the impact of LNG production shutdowns in Qatar on its LNG trading activities is limited (around 2 Mt expected in 2026), as most Qatari LNG is marketed by QatarEnergy.

LNG prices surged following the shutdown of the Ras Laffan facility due to missile attacks.

Hydrocarbon production

TotalEnergies said hydrocarbon production for the first quarter of 2026 should benefit from an organic growth above the 3 percent annual guidance, reflecting notably the start-ups of Lapa SW and Mabruk over the quarter, but is impacted by the loss of production in the Middle East.

This is around 100 kboe/d over the quarter and in line with the company’s statement issued on March 10.

Oil and gas production for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be in line with the fourth quarter of 2025, TotalEnergies said.

Considering this level of production, exploration and production results are expected to rise “significantly, fully reflecting the sensitivity to the increase of the average liquids price (+$12.4/b over the quarter, including the price lag effect in the United Arab Emirates) and the accretive contribution of the new projects,” it said.

TotalEnergies added that an increase of working capital of around $5 billion is anticipated for the quarter, with $2.5 to $3 billion related to the seasonality of the business and $2 to $2.5 billion related to the impact of the increase in hydrocarbon prices at the end of the quarter on inventories.

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